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50 July/August 2014 BizEd SCOTT ROTHSTE I N /TH I N KSTOCK research hood of winning, the first group wagered 24 percent more, on aver- age, than the second. ■ They were more likely to predict that a team would win the NCAA basketball tournament if that team's mascot was similar to the mascots of other teams. ■ They were more likely to act to prevent an IT security threat when they perceived that their actions were among many preventative behaviors, compared to those who viewed their actions as more isolated. If consumers are aware of this tendency, they can avoid "category size bias" and improve their forecast- ing accuracy. Moreover, such awareness also could help policymakers make their messaging to consumers more effective, says Brough. For instance, a message that aims to encourage more widespread use of seat belts in cars could be more effective if it includes "car accident" in a list of many preventable causes of death, rather than on its own. "Judging a part by the size of its whole: The cat- egory size bias in probability judgments" is forthcom- ing in the August 2014 issue of the Journal of Con- sumer Research. Aaron Brough ALTHOUGH HUMANS ARE wired to predict the future—whether it's what the weather will be, who will win a sporting event or election, or how a stock will perform—they rarely get better at it over time. Even so, consumers often will make major decisions based on their own predictions, according to Aaron Brough, assistant professor of manage- ment at Utah State University's Huntsman School of Business in Logan, and Matthew Isaac, assistant professor of marketing at Seattle University's Albers School of Busi- ness and Economics in Washington. Brough and Isaac found that consum- ers often make bad predictions because they are distracted by how possibilities are categorized, and the size of those cat- egories. The pair conducted a series of experiments. In each, participants consistently made worse predictions when a possibility appeared in a large grouping. For instance: ■ Participants whose lottery tickets were the same color as the tickets of many other gamblers believed they were more likely to win than those whose tickets matched only a few others'. When betting on their likeli- ■ SOCIAL INDEX Patrick O'Sullivan, profes- sor of business ethics at Grenoble Ecole de Manage- ment in France, has released the second Social Progress Index, a tool to help policy- makers measure the social strengths and weaknesses of their countries across 54 indicators in areas such as its citizens' access to food, shel- ter, and safety; healthcare; education; and a healthy envi- ronment. For information, visit www.socialprogress imperative.org/data/spi. ■ CHINA STUDIES The University of San Fran- cisco School of Management recently launched its China Business Studies Initiative to promote scholarship dedicat- ed to the globalization of Chi- nese businesses. The initia- tive kicked off with a one-day February conference on the future of Chinese multination- als. Further goals include cre- ating more opportunities to bring together leaders from business, government, and academia to reduce distrust and create greater under- standing between China and the U.S. ■ DIGITAL POLICY The Georgetown University Center for Business and Public Policy in Washing- ton, D.C., has launched its Evolution of Regulation and Innovation Project. Headed by Larry Downes and John Mayo of the McDonough School of Business, the project will produce research in areas such as communica- tions regulation, high-speed digital infrastructure, and emerging industries such as wearable technologies, 3D printing, and unmanned (drone) aircraft. UPCOMING & ONGOING Categorization Affects Consumer Predictions