Storm & Security

The Quiet "We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century," said Klotzbach in a forecast issued in early April. Others agree. All the forecast num- bers for 2015 are below the 30-year average of 12 named storms with six of those becoming hurricanes and, of those, three being major hurricanes falling into Category 3, 4 or 5. CSU's first forecast of the season calls for seven named storms, three hurricanes with one becoming a major storm. This forecast, Klotzbach explained, is based on an extend- ed-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 29 years of past data. "We anticipate a below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of a high likelihood of at least a moderate El Niño event and a relatively cool tropical Atlantic," the forecast stated. The Weather Channel (TWC) issued its forecast in late April calling for nine named storms, five hurricanes and one major hurricane. "Both the dynamical models and our proprietary statistical models suggest a relatively quiet tropical season this year," said meteorologist Todd Crawford of TWC's Professional Division. The Weather Research Center (WRC) forecast seven to 10 named storms this season, with four becoming hurricanes. It also stated there is a 30 percent chance of at least one hurricane becoming a major hurricane. WRC President Jill F. Hasling added that 2015 could be a long hurricane season with an 18 percent chance of having a named tropical cyclone in May (Tropical Storm Ana made landfall along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts May 10) and a 40 percent chance of experiencing a named tropical cyclone in November. The AccuWeather.com forecast put the number of tropical storms at eight, with four hurricanes and one becoming a Category 3, 4 or 5. The Dangerous Even without making landfall a hurricane can wreck havoc along the coast with heavy rain, storm surge and flooding. But if a storm does comes ashore the danger level rises adding wind-driven rain and debris and drastic pressure variations to that mix. The likelihood of a landfall is not reduced, necessarily, just because fewer storms are forecast. Storm professionals point out there is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and the number of U.S. landfalls in any given season. On May 9, nearly a month before the traditional start of the hurricane season, Tropical Storm Ana was about to make landfall along the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Photo courtesy of NASA. 12 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2015 Quiet, But Not Less Dangerous Every 2015 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to date expects lower than normal cyclone activity for the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. But don't confuse a quiet season with a less dangerous season. Weather experts and severe storm mitigation professionals are quick to point out that "it only takes one." Coastal residents should prepare every season regardless of how much activity is forecast. "It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," says Philip Klotzbach, lead forecaster at the tropical meteorological project at Colorado State University (CSU). The key to how dangerous the 2015 season will be to people and property is how many storms—and of what intensity—will make landfall. The key to the 2015 season is how many storms will make landfall. | by Howard Shingle

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