Storm & Security

WHAT'S IN A NAME Atlantic tropical storm names are maintained and updated through a strict procedure by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. Six lists of names are re-cycled in rotation, i.e., the 2015 list will be used again in 2021. The only time there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda ? 2015 ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM NAMES >>> TWC's Crawford recalled the 2014 hurricane season featured the fewest number of named storms in 17 years (eight storms), but also featured the strongest landfalling hurricane in the mainland U.S. in six years (Hurricane Arthur hit the Outer Banks off North Carolina July 3 and 4). "It is important to note that our—The Weather Channel— forecasts are for the total number of storms that may occur anywhere within the Atlantic Ocean, and do not attempt to predict the number of storms that will make landfall in the U.S.," said Peter Neilley, vice president of Global Forecast- ing Services at Weather Services International (WSI). CSU's forecast anticipates a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. Its probabilities for at least one major hurricane making landfall: • Entire U.S. coastline: 28 percent (average for last century: 52 percent) • East Coast including Florida peninsula: 15 percent (31 percent) • Gulf Coast from Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, TX: 15 percent (30 percent) Other forecasts are more certain that a storm will come ashore. WRC's Hasling forecast a 70 percent chance that a named storm will make landfall along the east coast of the United States from Georgia to Maine. Even more alarming, AccuWeather.com's long-range forecasting team antici- pates two or three storm systems will make landfall in the United States this season. The Unknown Forecasting future weather is full of unknowns. An important unknown for hurricanes is El Niño. An El Niño weather pattern usually causes frequent periods of high wind shear. Wind shear, AccuWeather.com explained, "causes the vertical column of spinning air within a system to become tilted, inhibiting the development of storms." It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall, according to the CSU forecast. The tropical and subtropical areas of the Atlantic Ocean are also quite cool at present. "Our best estimate is that we will likely have at least a moderate strength El Niño event during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season," Klotzbach said. But there are no guarantees as to the effects of El Niño on hurricanes. There have been active seasons in the past despite it. So even with forecasts calling for a below av- erage—even quiet—hurricane season this year, there's no ruling out the danger of at least one storm making landfall. FORECAST 2015 / STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION 13 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts 30-YR. AVG. CSU TWC WSI WRC AW Named Storms 12 7 9 9 7-10 8 Hurricanes 6 3 5 5 4 4 Major Hurricanes 3 1 1 1 * 1 SOURCES: CSU: Colorado State University; TWC: The Weather Channel; WSI: Weather Services International; WRC: Weather Research Center; AW: AccuWeather.com *The Weather Research Center puts the probably at 30 percent for at least one major hurricane developing in the Atlantic Basin this season. 7 7

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