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4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2013 FORECAST 2013 Vol. IV No. 2 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Cassidy (480) 276-3991 lcassidy@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett George Rosado KasNic Media, LLC 6430 North Central Avenue Suite 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N & No Suprises There was a slight change (22 percent probability according to the Weather Research Center) the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would get off to an early start with a cyclone developing in May. Thereʼs a much better probability (55 percent), WRC says, of a storm as late as November this year—and with the aftermath of Sandy still a big part of the everyday lives of millions of Americans in the Northeast, most people are likely to believe that. Early or late, long or short, every hurricane forecast this year calls for an active 2013 season: from six to 11 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes (see the forecast roundup beginning on page 10). Just as this issue was going to press, the Colorado State University forecast team updated its earlier forecast still expecting nine hurricanes and a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Each of these numbers is above the 50-year average. Pre-season forecasts serve as an early warning to us all. Experts have been researching storm development for long enough now to have honed their 0forecast accuracy to remarkable precision. When they say, as they are saying this year, to expect an active season, then we had better expect an active storm season. The biggest concern for most people, of course, is for a hurricane making landfall. Taking a direct hit is actually rather rare. AccuWeather.com points out that Florida hasnʼt taken the brunt of a hurricane since 2005. But thatʼs no reason to shrug off the forecasts. Just ask the residents of New Jersey who hadnʼt seen a hurricane in years … until Sandy. Sandy also reminded us that a storm doesnʼt have to be major to be deadly and highly destructive and that coastal residents are not the only ones who need to be prepared. The next time a storm hit we will not be able say, "We didnʼt know … ", or "We didnʼt expect this …". REMINDER: For all persons and companies involved in hurricane prepara- tion and mitigation, StormEXPO 2013 is scheduled for September 26 and 27 in Fort Lauderdale, FL (see page 13). Scheduled are seminars on changes to building codes; mitigation opportunities for contractors, manufacturers and suppliers; and health care survival for businesses and more. Online registration is available at www.stormsecuritymag.com and a special room rate is offered by the B Ocean Hotel. See you there! Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher Storm & Security Protection kasnic media, LLC from the editor The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. from the editor 4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2015 2015 SEASON FORECAST Vol. VI, No. I Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director: Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager: Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Licastro licastro@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett Joe Belcher KasNic Media, LLC 6430 N. Central Avenue, Ste. 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. Should We Trust 'Dumb Luck'? By early May this year it had been duly noted and reported by most news outlets that it has been nearly 10 years since a major hurricane has hit the United States. That fact caused a stir for a couple of reasons. One, the nine-year-plus drought of landfalling major hurricanes is "unprecedented in the historical record," according to a study by hurricane researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies published in Geophysical Research Letters. Two, the reason we haven't had a major hurricane hit land, according to the study, is mostly a matter of "dumb luck." It's not that the past decade has been especially quiet; in fact, there have been many active hurricane seasons and plenty of major hurricanes during that time. It's just that the hurricanes either have stayed out at sea or have come ashore elsewhere in the Caribbean or Mexico. The most recent major hurricane to hit the U.S. coast was Hurricane Wilma, which hammered Florida with 120-mph winds in October 2005, killing 61 people, according to USA Today. Other memorable hurricanes that have made landfall since then include Ike (2008), Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012) — but none of them hit as a Category 3 or greater. There are serious consequences that can come from this 10-year drought on major hurricanes making landfall. To begin with there is the sense of complacency coastal residents might feel. It's sort of a symptom of Hurricane Amnesia. Not only do residents forget what horrific damage a major hurri- cane can cause, but they also start to feel safe. They might think that because there haven't been any significant impacts in the past 10 years, there aren't likely to be any soon. Then there is the increase in exposure. Our coasts have seen an increase in population (and in property values and in insured risk). A study earlier this year estimates there now is more than $16 trillion in property exposure in the first tier of Gulf and Atlantic coastal communities. So even one landfalling hurricane, no matter its strength, can cause significantly more costly damage than even a year ago. It comes down to this: Are we willing to trust "dumb luck"? The answer is, "No!" Extreme weather experts and researches say there is no correlation between the number of hurricanes that develop in a season and the number of hurricanes that make landfall. Remember Andrew? That was a below-normal season. Coastal residents need to prepare every year regardless of how much storm activity is forecast. Trusting to luck is just plain dumb. Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher, Storm & Security Protection 4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2013 FORECAST 2013 Vol. IV No. 2 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Cassidy (480) 276-3991 lcassidy@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett George Rosado KasNic Media, LLC 6430 North Central Avenue Suite 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N & No Suprises There was a slight change (22 percent probability according to the Weather Research Center) the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would get off to an early start with a cyclone developing in May. Thereʼs a much better probability (55 percent), WRC says, of a storm as late as November this year—and with the aftermath of Sandy still a big part of the everyday lives of millions of Americans in the Northeast, most people are likely to believe that. Early or late, long or short, every hurricane forecast this year calls for an active 2013 season: from six to 11 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes (see the forecast roundup beginning on page 10). Just as this issue was going to press, the Colorado State University forecast team updated its earlier forecast still expecting nine hurricanes and a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Each of these numbers is above the 50-year average. Pre-season forecasts serve as an early warning to us all. Experts have been researching storm development for long enough now to have honed their 0forecast accuracy to remarkable precision. When they say, as they are saying this year, to expect an active season, then we had better expect an active storm season. The biggest concern for most people, of course, is for a hurricane making landfall. Taking a direct hit is actually rather rare. AccuWeather.com points out that Florida hasnʼt taken the brunt of a hurricane since 2005. But thatʼs no reason to shrug off the forecasts. Just ask the residents of New Jersey who hadnʼt seen a hurricane in years … until Sandy. Sandy also reminded us that a storm doesnʼt have to be major to be deadly and highly destructive and that coastal residents are not the only ones who need to be prepared. The next time a storm hit we will not be able say, "We didnʼt know … ", or "We didnʼt expect this …". REMINDER: For all persons and companies involved in hurricane prepara- tion and mitigation, StormEXPO 2013 is scheduled for September 26 and 27 in Fort Lauderdale, FL (see page 13). Scheduled are seminars on changes to building codes; mitigation opportunities for contractors, manufacturers and suppliers; and health care survival for businesses and more. Online registration is available at www.stormsecuritymag.com and a special room rate is offered by the B Ocean Hotel. See you there! Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher Storm & Security Protection kasnic media, LLC from the editor The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N &