Storm & Security

4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2013 FORECAST 2013 Vol. IV No. 2 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Cassidy (480) 276-3991 lcassidy@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett George Rosado KasNic Media, LLC 6430 North Central Avenue Suite 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N & No Suprises There was a slight change (22 percent probability according to the Weather Research Center) the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would get off to an early start with a cyclone developing in May. Thereʼs a much better probability (55 percent), WRC says, of a storm as late as November this year—and with the aftermath of Sandy still a big part of the everyday lives of millions of Americans in the Northeast, most people are likely to believe that. Early or late, long or short, every hurricane forecast this year calls for an active 2013 season: from six to 11 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes (see the forecast roundup beginning on page 10). Just as this issue was going to press, the Colorado State University forecast team updated its earlier forecast still expecting nine hurricanes and a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Each of these numbers is above the 50-year average. Pre-season forecasts serve as an early warning to us all. Experts have been researching storm development for long enough now to have honed their 0forecast accuracy to remarkable precision. When they say, as they are saying this year, to expect an active season, then we had better expect an active storm season. The biggest concern for most people, of course, is for a hurricane making landfall. Taking a direct hit is actually rather rare. AccuWeather.com points out that Florida hasnʼt taken the brunt of a hurricane since 2005. But thatʼs no reason to shrug off the forecasts. Just ask the residents of New Jersey who hadnʼt seen a hurricane in years … until Sandy. Sandy also reminded us that a storm doesnʼt have to be major to be deadly and highly destructive and that coastal residents are not the only ones who need to be prepared. The next time a storm hit we will not be able say, "We didnʼt know … ", or "We didnʼt expect this …". REMINDER: For all persons and companies involved in hurricane prepara- tion and mitigation, StormEXPO 2013 is scheduled for September 26 and 27 in Fort Lauderdale, FL (see page 13). Scheduled are seminars on changes to building codes; mitigation opportunities for contractors, manufacturers and suppliers; and health care survival for businesses and more. Online registration is available at www.stormsecuritymag.com and a special room rate is offered by the B Ocean Hotel. See you there! Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher Storm & Security Protection kasnic media, LLC from the editor The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. from the editor 4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2016 DIRECTORY & RESOURCE GUIDE 2016 Vol. VI, No. 3 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director: Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Marketing Assistant: Stephanie Szyska sszyska@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Licastro licastro@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett KasNic Media, LLC 6430 N. Central Avenue, Ste. 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. What 'Average' Really Means It's outlook season, again. What's different about this year is that when most forecasters check their climate data they see average activity ahead (see page 10). For the record, the long-term average for hurricane season is 12 named storms and six hurricanes, of which two or three are major hurricanes. After two years of below-average expectations, a return to average means more storms than the U.S. coast has seen for a few years. Some forecasters say this season will be the most active since 2012, while at least one other predicts it to be significantly more active compared to averages from the past 66 years. The same goes for the probabilities of a landfalling storm. The likelihood of a hurricane coming ashore this season is about the long-term average. The Colorado State University forecast puts this season's probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the U.S. coast at 50 percent. That's like flipping a coin. The Coastal Carolina University Hurricane Genesis & Outlook (HUGO) project puts the most probable scenario for landfalls at one hurricane along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The second most likely scenario is one hurricane making landfall along the East Coast and two hurricanes on the Gulf Coast. Although it's impossible to predict whether a hurricane will hit land or not, many forecasters are of the mind that we are due for a strike sooner rather than later. This season, average means active. This issue also is our 2016 Directory & Resource Guide. This valuable tool is a quick and ready reference for all the contacts you need to run a successful business. Are you looking for product approvals? You'll find resources in the alphabetical listing of companies beginning on page 12. Looking for struc- tural engineers? You'll find them listed, too. How about sources for shutters and wind abatement or security screens, fasteners and anchors, windows and doors, motors and controls? You'll find suppliers for all these and more listed! Keep this issue handy. If this hurricane season proves to be as busy as forecasters think, you could find yourself referring to it often! Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher, Storm & Security Protection 4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2013 FORECAST 2013 Vol. IV No. 2 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Cassidy (480) 276-3991 lcassidy@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett George Rosado KasNic Media, LLC 6430 North Central Avenue Suite 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N & No Suprises There was a slight change (22 percent probability according to the Weather Research Center) the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would get off to an early start with a cyclone developing in May. Thereʼs a much better probability (55 percent), WRC says, of a storm as late as November this year—and with the aftermath of Sandy still a big part of the everyday lives of millions of Americans in the Northeast, most people are likely to believe that. Early or late, long or short, every hurricane forecast this year calls for an active 2013 season: from six to 11 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes (see the forecast roundup beginning on page 10). Just as this issue was going to press, the Colorado State University forecast team updated its earlier forecast still expecting nine hurricanes and a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Each of these numbers is above the 50-year average. Pre-season forecasts serve as an early warning to us all. Experts have been researching storm development for long enough now to have honed their 0forecast accuracy to remarkable precision. When they say, as they are saying this year, to expect an active season, then we had better expect an active storm season. The biggest concern for most people, of course, is for a hurricane making landfall. Taking a direct hit is actually rather rare. AccuWeather.com points out that Florida hasnʼt taken the brunt of a hurricane since 2005. But thatʼs no reason to shrug off the forecasts. Just ask the residents of New Jersey who hadnʼt seen a hurricane in years … until Sandy. Sandy also reminded us that a storm doesnʼt have to be major to be deadly and highly destructive and that coastal residents are not the only ones who need to be prepared. The next time a storm hit we will not be able say, "We didnʼt know … ", or "We didnʼt expect this …". REMINDER: For all persons and companies involved in hurricane prepara- tion and mitigation, StormEXPO 2013 is scheduled for September 26 and 27 in Fort Lauderdale, FL (see page 13). Scheduled are seminars on changes to building codes; mitigation opportunities for contractors, manufacturers and suppliers; and health care survival for businesses and more. Online registration is available at www.stormsecuritymag.com and a special room rate is offered by the B Ocean Hotel. See you there! Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher Storm & Security Protection kasnic media, LLC from the editor The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N &

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