Storm & Security

FORECAST_D&G_2016

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FORECAST 2016 / STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION 11 one come ashore. In other words, the Weather Channel explains, a season can deliver many storms, but have little impact, or deliver few storms and have one or more hitting the U.S. coast with major impact. "The U.S. is due for another hurricane strike sooner rather than later," The Weather Channel states, but it's impossible to know if that will occur this season. It urges everyone to keep in mind that even a weak tropical storm hitting the U.S. coast can cause major impacts, particularly if it moves slowly, resulting in flooding rainfall. The CSU forecast anticipates a "near-average probability" for major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coast- line and in the Caribbean. Again, the return to "average" represents a higher probability than recent seasons. The probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall are: • 50 percent for the entire U.S. coastline • 30 percent for the East Coast including the Florida peninsula • 29 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula • to Brownsville, TX The Weather Research Center, based in Houston, TX, predicts that the Gulf of Mexico coast along the west coast of Florida and the Texas coast have the highest risk of experiencing landfall of a tropical cyclone this year. "There is a 70 percent chance that a named storm will make landfall along the west coast of Florida and a 60 percent chance a tropical storm or hurricane will make landfall along the Texas Coast," according to the Weather Research Center's forecast. Split Season? There are a couple of wildcards to consider in making forecasts for the 2016 hurricane season. One is the current temperature in the North Atlantic, the other (as always) is the presence (or absence) of El Niño. The far North Atlantic is quite cold, writes CSU's Klotzbach. These cold anomalies tend to create atmospheric conditions that are less conducive for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification, he adds. Meanwhile, the shear-enhancing El Niño conditions are likely to dissipate in the next several months, Klotzbach states. Wind sheer tends to break up developing storms creating a dampening effect on hurricane development. By August to October, virtually all models are calling for neutral El Niño or La Niña conditions. "The weakening El Niño is likely to transition either to neutral or La Niña con- dition by the peak of the 2016 Atlantic season," the CSU forecast states. That means wind shear enhancing condi- tions are likely to dissipate over the next several months. The transition from El Niño to La Niña, according to The Weather Channel forecast, could cause the early part of the hurricane season to be less active while the second half of the season may be more active. A LOOK BACK Overall, the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season produced 11 named storms, including four hurricanes (Danny, Fred, Joaquin and Kate), two of which, Danny and Joaquin, became major hurricanes. Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, two tropical storms—Ana and Bill—struck the northeastern coast of South Carolina and Texas, respectively. Ana caused minor wind damage, beach erosion and one direct death in North Carolina, and Bill produced heavy rain and flooding while it moved across eastern Texas and Oklahoma. NOAA scientists credit El Niño as the leading climate factor influencing the Atlantic season last year. "El Niño intensified into a strong event during the summer," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Bell said El Niño suppressed the Atlantic season by producing strong vertical wind shear combined with increased atmospheric stability, stronger sinking motion and drier air across the tropical Atlantic, all of which make it difficult for tropical storms and hurricanes to form and strengthen.

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