Specialty Food
Retail Channel
(Millions)
Whole Foods & Trader Joe's** Conventional* Natural & Specialty
* Conventional is representative of the following channels: Total U.S. Grocery, Mass, Total U.S. Drug,
Total Walmart, Dollar, Military, and Club
Barring another pandemic-like event, we expect the market to move back toward profitability and more
predictable growth. As a result, future bumps in the road, even a possible recession, will not be as disrup-
tive as if they had happened prior to 2020.
Expect grocery retail sales growth to be around 5 to 5.6 percent annually, and total market sales growth
at 5.7 to 6.3 percent. The highest growth should come from Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, and foodservice.
Grocery retail sales will outpace total grocery by one to two percentage points annually from 2024-2028,
even while trailing Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, and foodservice by about half a percent annually.
$150,000
$120,000
$90,000
$60,000
$30,000
$0
$113,960
$124,352
$131,148
2021 2022 2023
$12,515
$12,873
$13,385
$75,980
$82,831
$87,349
$25,465
$28,648
$30,414
Conventional
2023
Natural & Specialty
(including Whole Foods & Trader Joe's)
2022
9%
5%
9%
5%
10
5
0
% Change
and Beverage
(Millions)
%
Growth
(YoY)
Retail Sales of
Food and Beverages
2019
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
0%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f
Total specialty market sales
Total specialty market growth (YoY)
Specialty
$140,000
with Forecast
2019-2028f
Does not include retailers' private label sales, specialty food perishables (PLU or random-weight specialty items sold in a supermarket's bakery,
cheese, deli, meat, and seafood sections); sales through WFM or Trader Joe's; pure-play ecommerce (DTC); or foodservice channels.
SOURCE: SPINS/SFA
$70,284
5.6%
5.4%
21.7%
4.6%
3.5%
8.1%
5.3%
5.1%
5.0%
5.2%
$85,501
$88,495
$95,704
$100,734
$105,875
$111,169
$116,950
$123,265
$130,168
44 SPECIALTY FOOD SPECIALTYFOOD.COM
