Retail Observer

RETAILOBSERVER.COM MARCH 2025 28 I f you've ever seen Guy Kawasaki speak, you might have heard his parable about the ice industry – a once-thriving business, it failed because it refused to evolve. The lesson remains as relevant today as in the early 1900s: Adapt or become irrelevant. Long before freezers and refrigerators, ice was essential for food preservation. This need led to an industry that developed over time: • Ice 1.0: Workers cut blocks from frozen lakes and delivered them to homes. The business was physically demanding, seasonal, and geographically limited. • Ice 2.0: The rise of ice factories eliminated the need for lake harvesting, permitting year-round production in any climate. Factory- made ice became the standard. • Ice 3.0: The invention of the refrigerator rendered ice factories and home ice delivery obsolete. At each stage, the dominant ice companies failed to transition. Lake ice companies didn't evolve into ice factories, and ice factories didn't transition into refrigeration. Established businesses clung to their existing models until they were no longer viable. Guy Kawasaki called it "jumping the curve." Companies must anticipate and embrace major shifts, rather than merely refine their existing products and services. The ice industry failed to make the leap, and it's far from the only example. INDUSTRIES FACE THE SAME CHALLENGE TODAY The same pattern continues across industries. Companies that fail to evolve lose ground or disappear entirely. • Retail: Amazon transformed shopping habits. By 2025, global e-commerce sales are projected to exceed $6.5 trillion (Statista). Many traditional retailers have struggled to keep pace. • Transportation: Uber and Lyft disrupted the taxi industry. Meanwhile, Tesla and Rivian are accelerating the transition to electric vehicles, forcing legacy automakers to rethink their strategies. • Entertainment: Netflix upended Blockbuster and reshaped how we consume media. Now, platforms like AppleTV, Disney+, and YouTube are disrupting Netflix's dominance. The disruptors themselves will not be safe for long. • Hospitality: Airbnb redefined lodging, turning underutilized spaces into a multibillion-dollar market. By 2024, its market cap had reached $90 billion, surpassing many legacy hotel chains. • Technology: No industry I can think of reinvents itself more rapidly than tech. In the early internet era, brands like America Online and Yahoo were dominant. Then came the battle for search. In the mid- 2000s social media, smartphones, and cloud computing emerged. Now, AI is transforming business at an even faster pace, with companies like OpenAI and late-comer DeepSeek disrupting the next wave of change. This isn't just disruption, it's reinvention. Some companies adapt. Many do not. THE ACCELERATING PACE OF CHANGE The speed of disruption today is unprecedented. Artificial intelligence, automation, blockchain, and climate technology are reshaping industries at a furious pace. A 2023 report from McKinsey & Company found that companies investing in AI see productivity gains of 20% to 30%, yet most businesses remain in the early stages of adoption. At the same time, consumer expectations are evolving just as quickly. • 63% of consumers prefer brands that align with their personal values (Deloitte). • Consumers expect sustainability, ethical business practices, and personalized experiences. Companies that fail to meet these expectations risk becoming irrelevant, no matter how dominant they once were. CRITICAL QUESTIONS FOR BUSINESS LEADERS To remain competitive, companies must move beyond incremental change and embrace bold transformation. Consider the following: 1. Are you innovating, or simply improving on what already exists? 2. Are you aligned with your customers' values, or relying on outdated assumptions? 3. Are your competitors moving ahead of you? What signals might you be ignoring? 4. Is your brand story still relevant? Does it clearly communicate value in today's market? ADAPTATION IS A CHOICE The story of ice isn't unique. Change isn't a threat for companies that recognize the need for it. Businesses that embrace innovation, anticipate trends, and take bold steps do more than survive – they lead. The key is to act before the foundation beneath you disappears. As a brand and business advisor, I help companies evolve, whether through brand creation, reinvention, reshaping their vision, or foreseeing and responding to bold market shifts. EVOLVE OR PERISH The story of ice in the age of disruption Steven Morris On Brand Steven Morris is a brand, culture and leadership advisor, author, and speaker. Over his 25+ years in business he's worked with 3,000+ business leaders at 250+ global and regional companies. Discover: https://matterco.co RO

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