Storm & Security

DaVinci Roofscapes' polymer shingles are fire rated and wind resistant to 110 mph. DIRECTORY & RESOURCE GUIDE 2014 / STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION 11 A HEALTHY OUTLOOK The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), sponsors of the annual International Builders' Show, sees recovery in the homebuilding industry for the remainder of 2014 and beyond. So, too, do economists and guest speakers at this year's show. Here's a brief on what they see ahead: Housing Starts Up • NAHB forecasts 1.15 million total housing starts in 2014, up 24.5 percent from last year • Single-family production is projected to rise 32 percent in 2014 and an additional 41 percent in 2015 • Residential remodeling is expected to register a modest gain this year over 2013 • The slow and steady housing recovery will bring nationwide housing starts to 71 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of this year and 93 percent of normal by the end of 2015, according to David Crowe, NAHB's chief economist. Mortgage Rates Up, But Still Affordable • Mortgage rates will feel upward pressure, but not enough to harm housing affordability. "I think we will see a gradual rise of about a half a percentage point to five percent in 2014," said Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac • Home sales and prices will rise about five percent each in 2014 • Home-buying mortgages rather than mortgage refinancing will dominate the market for the first time since 2000 Pent-Up Demand Will Fuel Growth • There is a significant pent-up demand to form households and even to build homes, noted David Berson, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide Insurance. • Stronger job growth and a strengthening economy in 2014 should lead to a rise in household formations, which will be important to supplement housing demand • There will be a big increase in single-family construction, but not as much for multifamily. New from Therma-Tru is its impact-rated Salinas decorative glass now available with Oceana instead of clear glass for increased privacy. of the speakers focused on the economy this year, and there was optimism to be found in what they had to say. Led by resurgence in single-family production, housing is expected to continue its climb toward higher ground in 2014, but builders will confront challenges that could hinder the pace of the ongoing recovery, according to economists speaking at the show. "My single-family [building] forecast for 2014 is pretty aggressive: 822,000 starts, which is likely 200,000 more than 2013," said NAHB Chief Econo- mist David Crowe. "There are five key points to the turnaround. Consumers are back, pent-up demand is emerging, there is a growing need for new construc- tion, distressed sales are diminishing and builders see it." As a sign that builders are aware of the upward trend now under way, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which measures builder sentiment in the single-family housing market, has been above the 50 mark for the past eight months. Any reading above 50 means that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. Generac's Guardian Series standby home generators can be sized to power essential items or a whole house.

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