Storm & Security

FORECAST 2014 / STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION 11 WHAT'S IN A NAME When it comes to hurricanes, the choice of a name can have potentially deadly consequences. In "Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes," published in the June 2, 2014, issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), social sciences researchers report feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths versus masculine-named hurricanes, apparently because they lead to lower perceived risk and consequently less preparedness. For many years, meteorologists have believed using human names helps to quickly identify hurricanes and disseminate information about them. Researchers Kiju Jung, Sharon Shavitt, Madhu Viswanathan and Joseph Hible find doing this also taps into widely held gender stereotypes. Using more than six decades of death rates from U.S. hurricanes, they find laboratory experiments indicate that hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about the storm's severity and affect preparedness. Since 1953, Atlantic tropical storms had been named from six lists originated by the National Hurricane Center. They now are maintained and updated through a strict procedure by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. The six lists are used in rotation and re-cycled every six years. The 2014 list will be used again in 2020. The practice of naming hurricanes solely after women came to an end in 1978 when men's and women's names were included in the Eastern North Pacific storm lists. In 1979, male and female names were included in lists for the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The only time there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred ? 2014 ATLANTIC HURRICANE NAMES >>> that although El Niño is in the process of developing, the transition to El Niño had slowed some in recent weeks while the tropical Atlantic Ocean anomalously warmed. These changes caused the team to increase its forecast slightly from nine to 10 named storms and from three to four hurricanes. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near- normal or below-normal season. Its outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which began June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of eight to 13 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes. The main driver for this year's outlook, NOAA says, is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. In a June 5 statement, it notes that over the last month, the chances for El Niño and its ultimate strength weakened slightly. Regardless, it adds, forecasters remain just as confident that El Niño is likely to emerge.

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