Storm & Security

2014 SEASON OUTLOOK continued 12 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2014 Landfall Probabilities Uncertainty during any part of the hurricane season still is a key factor when forecasting hurricane intensity and the path of a cyclone. The Weather Channel points out there is no correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes that develop and the number or likelihood of U.S. landfalls in any given season. For example, 2010 saw 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes—tied for the third most storms in any Atlantic season—yet not one made landfall during that very active season. On the other hand, in 1983 there were only four named storms, but one was Alicia, a Category 3 hurricane that hit the Houston-Galveston, TX, area. AccuWeather.com's long-range forecast anticipates two storms, either tropical storms or hurricanes, will make landfall in the United States. Areas from the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico up through the East Coast will be most vulnerable for impacts from a tropical system, it states. AccuWeather.com's senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski says the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season could be ushered in by one or two storms in June or July. However, he adds, most storms and the best potential for landfall will be on the horizon for the basin during the heart of hurricane season, which occurs later in the summer and into fall, in the months of August, September and October. The CSU forecast team estimates the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall to be below average. For 2014, it states the probabilities of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the entire U.S. coastline at 40 percent (the average for the last century is 52 percent); along the East Coast including the Florida peninsula at 22 percent (the average for the last century is 31 percent); and along the Gulf Coast from the Florida peninsula westward to Brownsville, TX, at 23 percent (average is 30 percent). Jill F. Hasling, president of the Weather Research Center (WRC) and Certified Consulting Meteorologist from the American Meteorological Society, says the highest risk for a tropical cyclone strike (either a tropical storm or a hurricane) is along the west coast of Florida followed by the Texas coast and the Louisiana to Alabama coast. WRC is among those calling for fewer than normal cyclones this season, yet it forecasts a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane in the Atlantic Basin in 2014. What's more, WRC says 2014 could be a long season with cyclones possibly as late as November. Coastal residents in higher latitudes beware. A study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finds over the last 30 years the average latitude where tropical cyclones achieve maximum intensity has been shifting toward Earth's poles at about 35 miles per decade. The study, The Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity, was published in the journal Nature in May. As tropical cyclones move into higher latitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres, some regions closer to the equator may experience reduced risk, while coastal populations and infrastructure further from the tropics may experience increased risk. With their devastating winds and flooding, tropical cyclones can especially endanger coastal cities not adequately prepared for them. The movement of where a cyclone reaches maximum intensity might one day affect residents along the U.S. West Coast as the greatest migration is found in the northern and southern Pacific and South Indian oceans. East Coast residents could have less to worry about. For now, there is no evidence that the area of peak intensity of Atlantic hurricanes has migrated northward into the higher latitudes during the years covered in the study. Hurricane Intensity Shifting

• Cover