Issue link: https://www.e-digitaleditions.com/i/339614
4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2013 FORECAST 2013 Vol. IV No. 2 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Cassidy (480) 276-3991 lcassidy@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett George Rosado KasNic Media, LLC 6430 North Central Avenue Suite 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N & No Suprises There was a slight change (22 percent probability according to the Weather Research Center) the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would get off to an early start with a cyclone developing in May. Thereʼs a much better probability (55 percent), WRC says, of a storm as late as November this year—and with the aftermath of Sandy still a big part of the everyday lives of millions of Americans in the Northeast, most people are likely to believe that. Early or late, long or short, every hurricane forecast this year calls for an active 2013 season: from six to 11 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes (see the forecast roundup beginning on page 10). Just as this issue was going to press, the Colorado State University forecast team updated its earlier forecast still expecting nine hurricanes and a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Each of these numbers is above the 50-year average. Pre-season forecasts serve as an early warning to us all. Experts have been researching storm development for long enough now to have honed their 0forecast accuracy to remarkable precision. When they say, as they are saying this year, to expect an active season, then we had better expect an active storm season. The biggest concern for most people, of course, is for a hurricane making landfall. Taking a direct hit is actually rather rare. AccuWeather.com points out that Florida hasnʼt taken the brunt of a hurricane since 2005. But thatʼs no reason to shrug off the forecasts. Just ask the residents of New Jersey who hadnʼt seen a hurricane in years … until Sandy. Sandy also reminded us that a storm doesnʼt have to be major to be deadly and highly destructive and that coastal residents are not the only ones who need to be prepared. The next time a storm hit we will not be able say, "We didnʼt know … ", or "We didnʼt expect this …". REMINDER: For all persons and companies involved in hurricane prepara- tion and mitigation, StormEXPO 2013 is scheduled for September 26 and 27 in Fort Lauderdale, FL (see page 13). Scheduled are seminars on changes to building codes; mitigation opportunities for contractors, manufacturers and suppliers; and health care survival for businesses and more. Online registration is available at www.stormsecuritymag.com and a special room rate is offered by the B Ocean Hotel. See you there! Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher Storm & Security Protection kasnic media, LLC from the editor The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. **INSIDE PGS 3-26_FORECAST 6/20/13 7:48 PM Page 4 from the editor 4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2014 FORECAST 2014 Vol. V, No. 2 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director: Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager: Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Licastro licastro@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett KasNic Media, LLC 6430 N. Central Avenue, Ste. 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. El Niño and the 2014 Hurricane Season There has been a lot of talk lately about El Niño. Since early March, when NOAA issued an El Niño watch, the eyes of hurricane forecasters have been focused on the eastern Pacific Ocean. The watch, of course, means that ocean and atmospheric conditions there favor the full development of El Niño within six months—which almost covers the complete Atlantic hurricane season. One NOAA meteorologist called El Niño the "800-pound gorilla of Earth's climate system. On a global scale, no other single phenomenon has a greater influence on whether a year will be warmer, cooler, wetter, or drier than average." So what's the connection between El Niño and hurricanes? El Niño begins when equatorial and eastern Pacific Ocean waters warm to above average temperatures. The warm sea surface there causes stronger wind shear across the continental United States and into Atlantic Basin waters, which can reduce the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño also can strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off Africa to intensify into tropical storms. As of early June, NOAA put the chances of El Niño fully developing during the summer at 70 percent and 80 percent during fall and winter. So it's pretty much a done deal, then? A high probability of El Niño and a low probability of hurricanes this year? Well, no, not exactly. As with so many things in life, there are no guarantees. Most of us should remember the 2004 hurricane season: it brought nine hurricanes and four of them made landfall in the United States. Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne wrecked havoc for millions of homeowners. Three of them—Charley, Frances and Jeanne—crossed Florida as major hurricanes within a two-month period. That year, 2004, was an El Niño year. Many of us also remember 1992. That season only seven named tropical storms developed, but one of them became the Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, which devastated south Florida. That year, also, was an El Niño year. We know El Niño will have an effect on this season's hurricanes. We don't know if it will have its usual, predicted effect of dampening the development of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, or if it will be weak or unstable and allow a storm (or four) to come through. One thing, however, is for certain: El Niño is a big deal. It even has its own blog at Climate.gov. Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher, Storm & Security Protection 4 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2013 FORECAST 2013 Vol. IV No. 2 Web site: stormsecuritymag.com Publisher National Sales: Kerri Caldwell (773) 775-9293 kcaldwell@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Director Howard Shingle hshingle@kasnicmedia.com Office Manager Jenny Rieman jrieman@kasnicmedia.com Design & Production: Lynda Cassidy (480) 276-3991 lcassidy@kasnicmedia.com Editorial Contributors: Don Leggett George Rosado KasNic Media, LLC 6430 North Central Avenue Suite 206 Chicago, Illinois 60646 (773) 775-9293 STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N & No Suprises There was a slight change (22 percent probability according to the Weather Research Center) the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season would get off to an early start with a cyclone developing in May. Thereʼs a much better probability (55 percent), WRC says, of a storm as late as November this year—and with the aftermath of Sandy still a big part of the everyday lives of millions of Americans in the Northeast, most people are likely to believe that. Early or late, long or short, every hurricane forecast this year calls for an active 2013 season: from six to 11 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes (see the forecast roundup beginning on page 10). Just as this issue was going to press, the Colorado State University forecast team updated its earlier forecast still expecting nine hurricanes and a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline. Each of these numbers is above the 50-year average. Pre-season forecasts serve as an early warning to us all. Experts have been researching storm development for long enough now to have honed their 0forecast accuracy to remarkable precision. When they say, as they are saying this year, to expect an active season, then we had better expect an active storm season. The biggest concern for most people, of course, is for a hurricane making landfall. Taking a direct hit is actually rather rare. AccuWeather.com points out that Florida hasnʼt taken the brunt of a hurricane since 2005. But thatʼs no reason to shrug off the forecasts. Just ask the residents of New Jersey who hadnʼt seen a hurricane in years … until Sandy. Sandy also reminded us that a storm doesnʼt have to be major to be deadly and highly destructive and that coastal residents are not the only ones who need to be prepared. The next time a storm hit we will not be able say, "We didnʼt know … ", or "We didnʼt expect this …". REMINDER: For all persons and companies involved in hurricane prepara- tion and mitigation, StormEXPO 2013 is scheduled for September 26 and 27 in Fort Lauderdale, FL (see page 13). Scheduled are seminars on changes to building codes; mitigation opportunities for contractors, manufacturers and suppliers; and health care survival for businesses and more. Online registration is available at www.stormsecuritymag.com and a special room rate is offered by the B Ocean Hotel. See you there! Howard Shingle Editorial Director Kerri Caldwell Publisher Storm & Security Protection kasnic media, LLC from the editor The views and comments expressed by contrib- utors do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. Advertisers assume complete liability for all content of advertisements including text, representation and illustrations. **INSIDE PGS 3-26_FORECAST 6/20/13 7:48 PM Page 4 STORM SECURITY P R O T E C T I O N &