Storm & Security

10 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2014 The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season just might lie in the hands of a child—or more precisely, the child: El Niño. Since early March when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Niño watch, the eyes of hurricane forecasters have focused on the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. Warmer than average water there changes wind patterns and alters storm cycles around the globe. Combined with cooler Atlantic Ocean temperatures, the resulting El Niño typically reduces the chances of hurricanes developing off the U.S. East and Gulf coasts. Based on the probability of El Niño fully transitioning this summer, forecasters are calling for a below-average hurri- cane season this year. The predictions call for between six and 13 named storms and three to six hurricanes of which one or two will become major (Category 3, 4 or 5) storms. But not so fast. There are aggravating circumstances to consider, especially when it comes to the uncertainty of future storm patterns, intensities and paths and the exact role of El Niño. No Guarantees El Niño is an abnormal, but periodic event that tends to have a dampening effect on Atlantic hurricanes, but there is no guarantee it will do that in 2014. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Weather Services International (WSI), a part of The Weather Company, says if other favorable ingredients or a lack of other unfavorable ingredients are present, strong storms can still form during any hurricane season. Ten years ago, the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was especially devastating for Florida. In that year, Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne all roared into the state, wreaking havoc for millions of residents. In total, there were nine hurricanes and 15 named storms in the Atlantic that year. This was the first time in recorded history four hurricanes affected Florida in one season. In fact, the paths of Charley, Frances and Jeanne all crossed through Polk County in less than two months. This happened despite an El Niño that year—proof, The Weather Channel states, that by itself El Niño does not guarantee an average or below-average hurricane season. Forecasters, therefore, urge residents along coastlines not to buy into the El Niño premise and prepare as they would for any other hurricane season. The Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project updated its early spring forecast on June 2. Although still calling for a below-average season (less activity than the median 1981 to 2010 seasons), its authors make note of some recent changes in climate. The forecast team states Subject Change El Niño will affect the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, but exactly how is uncertain. Humberto, shown in this satellite image, was the first of only two Atlantic hurricanes in 2013. It reached peak intensity, with top winds of 90 mph, in the far eastern Atlantic. Photo courtesy of NOAAA 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK: to

• Cover