Storm & Security

persist. They are: strong wind shear, which is hostile to hurricane formation in the Main Development Region, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Atlantic ocean. The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project also cites cooling sea temperatures as a main limiting factor for hurricane development this season. "We have witnessed cooling of the tropical Atlantic during this past winter, and there is a fairly high likelihood that an El Nino event will develop this summer. Typically, El Nino is asso- ciated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation," says CSU's Phil Klotzbach. "After very active tropical seasons in 2010 and 2011, we expect fewer storms to develop this hurricane season," says Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Weather Services International (WSI), a part of The Weather Channel Companies. "The combina- tion of much cooler North Atlantic ocean temperatures and a trend towards El Nino conditions suggest a notable reduction in activity. There is still uncertainty regarding the development of El Nino, which will impact future forecast updates. If the chances of El Nino development increase, our forecast numbers will likely go down even further in future updates." Landfall The most dangerous part of a hurricane is what happens when it approaches land or makes landfall. As part of its seasonal forecast, the CSU team publishes probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil. For this season the proba- bilities are: • A 42 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline (the long-term average probability is 52 percent). • A 24 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast including the Florida Peninsula (the long- term average is 31 percent). • A 24 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, TX (the long-term average is 30 percent). Weather Research Center (WRC), Houston, TX, is forecasting a 60 percent chance of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Key West, FL, and along the Georgia to North Carolina coast during the 2012 hurricane season. It adds that there is a high chance that three more tropical storms or hurricanes will make land- fall somewhere along the U.S. Coast. Other weather experts are cau- tious in their predictions. Weather Channel Senior Meteorologist Stu Os- trofor states, "I am on record many times as saying, and as is The Weather Channel's philosophy, these forecasts absolutely cannot accurately predict critical details such as where or how many landfalls will occur and people in hurricane-prone areas should be equally prepared every year regardless of seasonal predictions." NOAA's seasonal outlook also does not predict how many storms will hit land. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts are provided by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, which continuously monitors the tropics for storm development and tracking throughout the season using an array of tools including satellites, advance computer modeling, hurricane hunter aircraft, and land- and ocean-based observation sources such as radars and buoys. Remembering Andrew Even if 2012 turns out to be a below average hurricane sea- son, it wouldn't matter to someone who got hit by the one storm that did develop. NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco says, "Regardless of the outlook, it's vital for anyone living or vacation- ing in hurricane-prone locations to be prepared. We have a stark reminder this year with the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew." Andrew, a Category 5 hurricane, struck Homestead in south Florida on August 24, 1992. It was the first storm in a late-starting season that produced only six named storms. So far, 2012 is getting off to a faster start than 1992 when there were low numbers of named systems. During that entire season there was one subtropical storm, three tropical depres- sions, two tropical storms and four hurricanes. The 1992 Atlantic Hurricane Season is an example of how one storm can break "hurricane amnesia" for places that have not had a direct hit in years and of how overall numbers can lead to a false sense of security. Below: Twenty years ago, a slow starting, below average hurricane season was pounded by the powerful, deadly Hurricane Andrew. Photo: NOAA.

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