Storm & Security

Forecast 2012

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by payment of premiums for flood poli- cies with any deficits funded by the U.S. government. The flood losses from Irene, which was Category 1 or below when it made landfall in the United States, generated 9,000 flood claims in North Carolina, 20,000 claims in New York, and another 22,000 in New Jersey. River flood records were broken in 26 rivers: New Jersey (8), New York (14), Vermont (4). Interestingly, the average flood claims from Irene were only $28,000. After a major hurricane the number of claims would double and an average amount would be more in line with the Katrina range, which was $98,000 per flood claim. Under federal law, FEMA has the obligation not just to respond to emer- gencies in the moment, but also to help communities rebuild over time. One former FEMA official estimated that there are several hundred open disaster projects still being funded by FEMA—the projects range from fire stations to sewer systems. According to CNN, "The Republicans in the House of Represen- tatives tried to slash 2012 spending for FEMA by 55 percent compared with 2011 spending levels, 70 percent compared with the 2010 budget." Ultimately the funds have been released, but Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia was quoted as saying he "would not increase FEMA's funding until spending is cut elsewhere." With the current federal deficit a hot election year topic, FEMA may see some restrictions in its ability to fund the rebuilding of disaster sites. As we move into the 2012 hurricane season the preliminary forecasts are for an average year of hurricane damage, which is good news for anyone who has to pay an insurance premium for property insurance. And for alarmists, the Maya might still be right. A national organization that claims a success rate of 90 percent released this year's Earth- quake Prediction Risk calculator and California's chances of a major quake "increases to 40 percent (well above the annual 10 percent risk) during the period from July 2012 to July 2013." 2012 FORECAST / STORM&SecURITy PROTecTION 23 The year of the quake instead of the storm surge might be just what the doctor ordered for insurance carriers to decide hurricane-prone regions are a great place to call home after all. Don Leggett has been in the insurance industry for 30 years and is currently the managing partner for Insurance Office of America, the seventh largest privately held insurance broker in North America.

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