Storm & Security

SEASON FORECAST Despite below average forecasts, could be 'the year.' It has happened before. The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season might not care much for calendars. Days before June 1, the official start of the season, two named storms—Alberto and Beryl—had already formed and in one case made landfall along the U.S. East Coast. Harbingers of the season to come? Expert forecasters don't think so. Rather, they expect a near normal (read that: below average) hurricane season this year, but with a notable caveat: Remember 1992! Twenty years ago was another below average Atlantic sea- son. It started slow and there were only six named storms, four of which became hurricanes. But one of those storms was the Category 5 Hurricane Andrew, which devastated southern Florida and, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- istration (NOAA), caused $26 billion in damage and killed more than 60 people. Any year could be "the year" for hurricanes. By the Numbers For 2012, hurricane and climate experts forecast a less active season compared with previous years. According to NOAA, an average season, based on the period 1981 through 2010, produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. In its 2012 forecast released in late May, NOAA issued a range and probability calling for a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher), and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). The Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University (CSU) predicts tropical cyclone activity this year will be about 75 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2011 witnessed activity that was 145 percent of average. The CSU team calls for 10 named storms during the 2012 season, which falls between June 1 and November 30. Four of those storms are 10 STORM&SecURITy PROTecTION / 2012 FORECAST expected to become hurricanes and two of those hurricanes are expected to be major. A near-normal season for the Atlantic Basin is forecast by AccuWeather. For 2012 it projects 12 named tropical storms, five named hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The Weather Channel's preseason forecast, released in April, calls for 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. These forecast numbers are well below the averages for the current active era from 1995 through 2011 (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes). Most Conditions Unfavorable Seasonal forecasts are based on several factors—some are current meteorological conditions, some are historical data. These factors either can be favorable for storm development or work to dampen storm development. According to NOAA, factors favoring storm development in 2012 include the continuation of the overall conditions associated with the current Atlantic high-activity era that began in 1995, in addition to near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, an area known as the Main Development Region. Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather.com lead long-range forecaster, notes that "home-grown" storms in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, near the U.S. coast, are a possibility this year. "Fronts coming down during June and July could cause energy to break off and develop tropically," he explains. "Another big storm is possible for the East Coast with heavy, flooding rain," Pastelok adds. "With a ridge [of high pressure] over the Rockies and a trough [of low pressure] over the Great Lakes and Appalachians, the East Coast will be open for a hit [this summer]. Of course, this depends on where the storms form." But, NOAA adds that there are two factors now in place that can limit storm development throughout the season, if they | by Howard Shingle | New Normal 2012

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