Storm & Security

IN/BOX Isaac Losses Could Reach $2 Billion Insured losses in the United States from Hurricane Isaac could reach $2 billion, according to estimates by AIR Worldwide, a risk modeling software and consulting company based in Boston, MA. AIR estimates include wind and storm surge damage to on- shore residential, commercial and industrial properties. Damage reports have focused on the flooding caused by Isaac's precip- itation and slow movement. Nearly eight inches of rain were reported at the New Orleans International Airport on August 30, 2012, AIR reported. Much of the worst flooding occurred in Plaquemines Parish, LA, where a combination of storm surge and rainfall caused water to top earthen levees. Wind damage has been less extensively reported. "However, Isaac's slow forward speed and refusal to dissipate will exacerbate wind damage," said Tim Doggett, AIR principal scientist. "Isaac made two separate landfalls, both as a Category 1 hurricane," said Doggett. "The first occurred on August 28 at low-lying Plaquemines Parish, LA, at around 7:45 p.m. CDT. Instead of continuing inland as expected, the storm veered sharply to the southwest and re-emerged over the water, which allowed it to maintain its strength. It then made a second landfall on the morning of August 29 just west of Port Fourchon, LA. NOAA Raises Hurricane Prediction As the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season entered its most active period, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- tration updated its seasonal hurricane outlook and forecast five to eight hurricanes, of which two to three could be major (Category 3, 4 or 5). The new outlook, issued in August, is slightly higher than its initial forecast issue in May, which called for four to eight hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. The update still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent. "We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer- than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane fore- caster at the Climate Prediction Center. "These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season." Florida Highest in Storm Surge Exposure; NYC Residents Have Most to Lose More than four million single-family homes along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at risk from hurricane-driven storm surge. That figure, from CoreLogic, includes homes at "extreme" risk (those that would be inundated by storm surge from any hurricane—Category 1 or higher) to those at "low" risk (those that would be inundated by storm surge only from a Category 5 storm). These homes are located across 19 states and the District of Columbia, and their total value, according to a 6 CoreLogic annual report, exceeds $700 billion. Of states, Florida has the greatest number of potential prop- erties at risk from hurricane-driven storm surge (1.38 million) and the highest total exposure in value ($198.5 billion), according to the report. For metropolitan areas, New York City residents have more to lose in total structural value ($168 billion) based on higher density and higher home values. The 2012 CoreLogic Storm Surge Report also takes into account the relative lengths of states' coastlines and their coastal elevations. For example, the short, but low-lying coasts of Louisiana and New Jersey increase their overall risks. Top 10 States for Potential Storm Surge Risk (Total Properties) 1. Florida 2. Louisiana 3. Texas 4. New Jersey 5. Virginia 6. New York 7. North Carolina 8. South Carolina 9. Massachusetts 10. Georgia 1,379,379 497,074 353,584 346,035 305,486 281,500 162,255 159,236 112,196 98,095 Source: CoreLogic, 2012 Top 10 Metro Areas at Risk of Storm Surge Total Structural $168.1 billion Value 1. New York, NY 2. Virginia Beach, VA 3. Miami, FL 4. New Orleans, LA 5. Tampa, FL 6. Boston, MA 7. Houston, TX 8. Cape Coral, FL 9. Jacksonville, FL 10. Charleston, NC 46.0 billion 42.7 billion 38.7 billion 28.9 billion 23.0 billion 19.8 billion 19.6 billion 18.4 billion 17.3 billion $369,178 158,405 186,015 139,714 101,859 326,376 111,148 113,751 144,123 217,302 Source: CoreLogic, 2012. Based on estimated property values as of May 15, 2012 New Rolling Shutter Engineered Small QMI, Itasca IL, introduced its end-retained Qompact® rolling shutter system at the Stuttgart Germany R+T global shutter show earlier this year and now introduces it to the U.S. and Caribbean hurricane markets. "Coil sizes are significantly reduced with the Qompact system. A seven-foot tall shutter fits into just a six-inch housing and our seven-inch housing will hold STORM&SEcURITY PROTEcTION / PEOPLE IN THE KNOW 2012 Average Value

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