Issue link: http://www.e-digitaleditions.com/i/80527
Aging Populations We now have seven billion people on our planet—and many of them are old. In 2005, the average age of our population was 28.1 years. By 2050, it will be 37.8, and in the most developed countries it will have surpassed 45 years. Societies in Japan and Southern Europe are aging so fast their populations are shrinking. Meanwhile, much of Africa and Asia will continue to see population growth. Widespread aging has implica- tions for the distribution of pur- chasing power, the viability of cur- rent welfare state models, and the availability of qualified human capi- tal, among other issues. This makes me wonder why demographics isn't a mandatory MBA course. By now, most business schools have embraced the idea of enroll- ing 30-to-40-year-old managers in specially designed EMBA pro- grams. But what about the grow- ing number of people in their 50s, 60s, or even 70s who embrace new professional challenges after decades of work experience? While GMAC data shows deans are excited about rapid growth in the "pre-experience" segment, the real opportunities may lie with the "ultra-experience" group. I don't know many schools that have begun to think about how to serve these students, but the potential will become increasingly clear. Tech Revolution Technology's transformative impact on education is undoubtedly per- vasive. More business schools are embracing online and blended pro- grams, but they also face stiffer com- petition—from free content providers such as TED and Udacity to fee- based distributors such as Udemy. Harvard and MIT recently announced that they will distribute online courses via their new edX platform, which includes built-in exams and certificates. This may be the game changer that causes universities to rethink the way they view online learning. Yet if the experience of other industries is any guide, the players whose technology will have the greatest impact on education aren't even on our radar screens today. A Cautionary Tale Jack Welch once warned that when the rate of change outside the organiza- tion exceeds the rate of change inside, the end is near. There can be no doubt about the rate of change outside. The question is whether we can boost the rate of change inside business schools. Let me conclude by describing a 125-year-old organization that is admired for its capacity for innovation. It attracts the world's best sci- entists and has preserved a flexible network structure. It is truly interna- tional, with campuses in the U.S., U.K., China, India, Finland, Kenya, and Switzerland. Its brand is globally renowned, yet its operations are always locally anchored. It's no surprise that the organization controls 46 percent of its market and has reached a market capitalization of US$151 billion. The organization I just described is Nokia—in January 2008. As of May 2012, Nokia's market capitalization is US$10.7 billion, a 93 percent drop in just over four years. What went wrong? Nokia felt it had its competition cornered, as it outperformed the likes of Motorola, Samsung, Sony, and LG across many indicators. Yet it didn't have Apple or Google in its view. When those two entered the mobile phone business, they redefined the value proposition and changed the rules of the game forever. Will Apple and Google similarly impact the education market, or will dis- ruptive innovation be brought by someone or something we haven't bothered to consider? In either case, let's make sure business education doesn't become the next Nokia. Let's prepare ourselves for whatever the future holds. This article is based on a keynote address delivered at the GMAC Lead- ership Conference in February 2012. At the time, David Bach was dean of programs at IE Business School in Madrid, Spain. He is now senior associate dean for executive MBA and global programs at the Yale School of Management in New Haven, Connecticut. 24 September/October 2012 BizEd