Storm & Security

PEOPLE IN THE KNOW 2014 / STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION 9 CONTACTS AAMA Appoints New Certification, Technical Staff Managers The American Architectural Manufacturers Association (AAMA), Schaumburg, IL, announces new staff appointments: Jason Seals as certification manager and Rich Rinka as technical/ industry affairs manager. Seals comes to AAMA with more than 15 years experience in the fenestration industry. He will direct all of the association's certification-related activities with direct management responsi- bilities for the air, water and structural Gold Label Certification Program, as well as the Thermal Certification Program (silver label). Seals also will manage all aspects of the ANSI accreditation requirements in addition to certification-related audits and act as advisory staff liaison to assigned member groups within the association. In his most recent position with a window and door manufacturer, Seals managed certifications and approvals from various independent inspection agencies and code organizations, including AAMA. As AAMA's technical/industry affairs manager, Rinka will serve as a technical spokesperson and liaison representing the association at the meetings of affiliated industry organizations to identify areas of interest or impact to AAMA members. He also will conduct critical reviews of the association's technical docu- ments to ensure consistency, stringency and accuracy, as well as coordinate the use and acceptance of AAMA standards by other consensus bodies. As staff liaison for assigned committees and task groups, Rinka will provide technical expertise and direction for members. Prior to joining AAMA in 2012, Rinka worked in the industry as a field technical engineer for a component supplier and also served as chair of the AAMA 800 Maintenance Committee. During his time in product development for the automotive industry, he developed and still holds four patents related to sealants. In Memoriam: V. John Knezevich, PE Vladimir John Knezevich II died Friday, August 15, 2014. He was 77. Knezevich was an active and respected member of the Florida professional engineering community for more than 40 years and a founding board member of the International Hurri- cane Protection Association (IHPA). Knezevich helped forge the way for IHPA's creation and was instrumental in the development of many of the standards under which the hurricane protection industry operates today, IHPA states. Knezevich was the founder of KA, Knezevich & Associates, and a pioneer in the aluminum engineering industry leading efforts in the designing, developing and testing of hurricane protection products. He is survived by Geri, his wife of 44 years, and four children. In honor of his memory, contributions may be made in his name to the National Brain Tumor Society. 12 STORM & SECURITY PROTECTION / FORECAST 2013 the total seasonal probability of landfall can be forecast with statistical skill. With landfall a function of varying climate conditions, the probability of landfall can be developed through statistical analyses of all U.S. hurricane and named storm landfall events during the 20th century (1900 to 1999). Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall, CSU states. "We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean," writes Klotzbach. Here are CSUʼs probabilities of a 2013 U.S. landfall (figures in parenthesis represent averages for the last century): • Entire U.S. coastline: 72 percent (52 percent) • U.S. East Coast including Florida peninsula: 48 percent (31 percent) • Gulf Coast from Florida peninsula to Brownsville, TX: 47 percent (30 percent) The CSU team adds there is a 61 percent probability for at least one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean. The average for the last century is 42 percent. AccuWeather.com reports the East Coast to the Gulf of Mexico is at most risk for landfall this season. The Weather Research Center (WRC), Houston, TX, believes there is "a high chance" that three or more tropical storms or hurricanes will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast. According to WRC meteorologist Jill Hasling, the Gulf Coast has a 70 percent chance of experiencing the landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane this year. The coast from Georgia to North Carolina has the second highest risk with a 60 percent chance. WRC uses a model called Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI), which uses the solar cycle (an indication of the solar systemʼs orbit) to predict the risk for coastal residents each hur- ricane season. The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern on Earth. WRC also foresees a high probability for a long hurricane season this year. While indications were low (22 percent) of a cyclone developing as early as May this year, there is a higher probability (55 percent) of a tropical cyclone as late as November. SEASONAL /FORECAST continued **INSIDE PGS 3-26_FORECAST 6/20/13 7:48 PM Page 12

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