Storm & Security

2011/SEASON REVIEW Carry-over Effect Will the memory of Irene spur mitigation, storm protection activity? When the pre-season 2011 Atlantic hurricane forecasts were released nearly a year ago, experts agreed an above normal season was ahead. Each of the experts quoted in our Seasonal Forecast (see Storm & Security Protection, Vol. II, No. 2, page 12) particularly pointed to the high probability of the first U.S. landfalling hurricane since 2008. In both respects, they were right on target. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for Weather Services International (WSI) had the most succinct quote: "We do expect a much more impactful season along the U.S. coastline," he said. "Eighty percent of all years in the historical dataset have had at least one hurricane landfall in the [United States]. Our recent good fortune in avoiding landfalling hurricanes is not likely to last," he added. Paul Pastelok, meteorologist and hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.com, agreed. "It looks like we're going to have more impact on the mainland of the U.S. coming up [in 2011] compared to last year," he stated. And in writing the extended 2011 forecast for the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorological Project, Philip Klotzbach put numbers to the landfall expectations. "The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average," he said. The CSU team put the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the entire U.S. coastline at 72 percent. Breaking Hurricane Amnesia Those predictions came true on August 27, 2011, when Hurricane Irene became the lone hurricane to hit the United States during the 2011 season, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene also was the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991. "Irene broke the 'hurricane amnesia' that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms," said Jack Hayes, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. "[The 2011] sea- son is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season." The only exception to the pre-season forecasts was that Irene was not a major hurricane when it hit. Irene made landfall at approximately 7:30 a.m. EDT on August 27, near Cape Lookout, NC, with maximum 2012 DIRECTORY & RESOURCE GUIDE / STORM&SeCuRITy PROTeCTION 13 sustained winds of 85 mph (Category 1). So as far as landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of 111mph and greater) are concerned, the lull continues for U.S. coasts. Last season marks a record six straight years without a major storm making landfall. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005. Nonetheless, wind is not the only threat with tropical systems as proven by Irene and Lee, which caused deadly and destructive flooding. On average, more than half of the fatalities related to tropical systems are due to flooding. Third Most Active Season By the time the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30, it had produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including four major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA's predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995. The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11. The number of major hurricanes is also well above the average of two. However, the number of hurricanes is close to the average of six. The 2011 totals include a post-storm upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status, a post-storm upgrade of Hurricane Rina to major hurricane status,

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