BizEd

NovDec2012

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idea exchange Spy on the Future The Reason Ask students to beta-test intelligence analysis software—typically used by government intelligence agencies—to see how well it might help analysts make accurate market predictions The Idea Location Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM) in France The Module GEM's beta-testing project is part of a three-week business and technology intelligence module in its 15-month Advanced Masters in Bio- technology Management pro- gram. The module is taught by affiliate professor Edward Roche. The Software Roche and his students worked with Globalytica, a U.S. software company based in Reston, Virginia, to test its intelligence analysis soft- ware program, Te@mACH. Globalytica, a subsidiary of Pherson Analytics, designed the software using techniques developed by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. 64 November/December 2012 BizEd Most students are used to the idea of using business intelligence software to analyze a company's proprietary data. But intelligence analysis software is dif- ferent because it analyzes internal and external data—some of which might seem trivial—to give users a better understanding of whole markets, much like government spies gather intelligence on other countries, explains Roche. With Te@mACH, users can input data relevant to multiple hypotheses, rating each data point's level of importance on a scale of one to five. The software then highlights areas of consensus and flags points of dispute. Once users have reviewed the findings, discussed their differences, and refined the data, the software offers a matrix that makes market predictions, like a strategic form of crowdsourcing. The Projects Students in Grenoble's biotech program gather data to input into a new software program designed by CIA veterans. Students tested two types of Te@mACH software—single-user and multi-user. Students worked with the single-user software for individual assignments, in which they predicted which companies will be the leaders in personalized medicine. Students formed teams of three to five for a larger project in which they used the multi-user software to ana- lyze takeover targets in the biotech industry. Each group was assigned a biotech company such as Amgen, Celgene, or Human Genome Sciences. Students then generated hypotheses on whether firms would be attractive to acquiring companies and input their hypoth- esis and data into the software. The Possibilities Because students studied existing companies, most of their findings are confiden- tial. However, the software did support their prediction that companies specializ- ing in computational genetics are poised to become biotech leaders in the future, as more healthcare providers tailor treatment to each individual patient. Whether they're right? That will take several years to determine, Roche says. Even so, the software will become only more robust over time—it stores the data collected during each module to form a knowledge base for the next cohort. Roche believes that intelligence analysis software has great potential for ongo- ing knowledge creation and analysis. Business leaders might be able to use it to predict market leaders, detect strategic weaknesses, and identify promising tech- nologies five, ten, or even 20 years out—something nearly impossible to do today. To read more about the software, visit www.pherson.org/tools.html. BRANDON LAUFENBERG/ISTOCKPHOTO

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